Sydney cup day is upon us, with the last of the carnival features producing more great group 1 clashes throughout the card it looks a great betting day.
Best bets and quaddie
Race 6 horse 1 - Mourayan
The lloyd Williams trained galloper comes into this race serverly under rated in what is a moderate at best field. Mourayan ran 7th in last years Melbourne cup and under the compressed weight scale only has to give the limit weight 3.5 kgs. Mourayan has a terrific record on this track a perfect barrier and the ability to push forward and out tough his opponents here. He has been set for this race and presents a great each way bet.
Race 3 horse 3 - Skyerush
last start winner of the Doncaster prelude bypassed the main race last week and has set target on an easier task today. Three wins and two placings from six track appearances combined with a great record at 1600M with barrier 2 Shinn will get this one home.
Race 5 - Tough opener, go wide with multiple chances - 3,8,11,13,14
Race 6 - Sydney cup go with the best 2 milers 1,4,8
Race 7 - *Best trifecta of the day* All Too Hard, More Joyous and Rain Affair 3,6,7
Race 8 - Tough leg to finish with - 4,11,14,15
Doncaster day has arrived and whilst the depth of racing isn’t quite as strong as previous weeks the day provides some great betting opportunities with some classy horses appearing.
Pierro is the headline act in the Doncaster with the Australian oaks an interesting back up race with Dear Demi looking to secure a rare oaks double from the spring and autumn.
RACE 5 HORSE 7 - Earnest Ernest (Currently $15.00)
Race 5 is an extremely open benchmark 85 handicap with the top weights having to carrry big weight with bad barriers. Take Earnest Ernest as our best bet for the meeting! This horse was held up badly last start after dropping out early flew home and would have beated his more favoured rivals. I suspect from barrier 1 Collett will ride more positive today and find a spot. He has been freshened up for this race and with five placings from six starts in the rain effected ground and with the double figure holds this one is worth a good each way bet.
RACE 6 1. Kelinni, 3. Fibrillation, 8. Lunayir, 15. Sysmo
RACE 7 1. Dear Demi, 2. Habibi
RACE 8 1. Shoot out, 2. Pierro, 4. Veyron, 9. Solzhenitsyn, 19 Lightinthenite.
RACE 9 4. Instinction, 8.Keith's Legacy, 9. Aerobatics, 14 Destiny's Kiss
160 Combinations however should pay well! $40 spend for 25%
The Doncaster edition of 2013 comes down to how good Pierro really is. I think the horse is a good quality horse evidence by her only defeats coming in a Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate however I am not sure whether he is a superstar.
The betting suggestion here is to take Pierro as a rover in a trifecta with many of the value chances listed below. 1 rover with 5 other selections will only cost you $30 for a 50% dividend. This is one of the best profit betting tools on the market!
Roving Banker - Pierro
1. Shoot Out - Runner up in this race last year and impossible to fault the form this time. Won first up at 1600 before fast finishing result to Pierro last time, now gets weight swing and is obvious danger.
4. Veyron - four from six wins on slow ground combined with five wins at 1600m. This horse will lead with 300M to go it just whether he has class to hand on.
9. Solzhenitsyn - huge run first up against more joyous and pierro. has great 1600m stats and just proved last time that the WFA class finds him out. Gets a low weight today, conern over wet grounf however you will get the price for it!
18. Sacred Falls - was thumped by itsadundeel last week however the drop back to 1600m suits a redoute's choice. two from two on slow tracks watch out for this one.
19. Lightinthenite - Nice performance first up in the Ajax and will appreicate the wet ground combined with extra trip. From barrier seven looks set to get a great run in transit and was competitive in last years Epsom. Huge odds and value.
The Sydney general public has Black Caviar fever with the great one hitting town for her 25th victory this weekend at Royal Randwick. The mare will take her place in the TJ Smith stakes which is her hardest test since coming back from Royal Ascot, Peter Moody says she is going as well as ever which should be enough for win. I note she doesn’t appear to go as well around the corner the Sydney way of going so look for Luke Nolan to be aggressive early and set the pace close to the inside.
The balance of the card is very good, Itsadundeel is the likely Derby winner and last weeks golden slipper winner Overreach will start a short priced favourite in the sires.
Best bet of the day is another Peter Moody runner in the Chairman’s HCP horse number 6 Vatuvei. This horse is fourth up from a spell today and gets a distance where he really excels. Winner of the Moonee Valley gold cup in the spring and this is a very similar field perhaps slightly weaker. Draws the inside barrier where Nolan can settle the horse early and there is sufficient speed in the race through Mourayan for him to find the line late. Currently at $17 well worth a big each way ticket.
Surprisingly our best place bet comes in the TJ Smith group 1 event. Our suggestion in the John O'Shea trained horse number 10.Sea Siren make no mistake this horse is a group 1 standard horse. Probably tried to bite off more then he can chew in travelling to Hong Kong in December and that trip clearly has taken a bit out of the horse. The stable is adamant the horse is now in full condition
and ready to bounce back after a disappointing first up effort. With Black Caviar forced to set a high speed early rain affair and hay list will ensure it is a true 1200m test. Seas Siren is proven over the 1350 of the Doomben 10,000 so watch him take a quiet trip in running and fly home.
Around $4.00 a place follow!
Obviously the suggestion is to go skinny with the quaddie today and try for a big percentage!
3,4,13 - take the main chances who will get good runs in transit. Mashiara my best.
1 - Dundeel
2,3,7,12,14 - plenty of value here
9 - CAV!
Spend $30 for 200%!
Welcome to the richest two year old race in the world. The 2013 edition of the golden slipper is worth a whopping 3.5 million Australian dollars and sees the country’s biggest stables and breeding operations all try to peak their talented juveniles for a big pay day. At the time of writing the track is rated a slow 7 and with showers around the morning of the race the selections will be based around a rain affected track.
As always a capacity field of 16 lines up in the slipper with luck in running ultra important for horses which usually lack a great deal of maturity. The speed of this race is fascinating Ruud Awakening (barrier 16), Kuroshio (14) and I’m All The Talk (13) all look likely to push forward with Villa Verde (15) expected to get on their backs and look for a spot up front. Tommy Berry is expected to use the inside gate on the short price favourite Overreach and push to front with Waterhouse’s other runners Sweet Idea & Whittington won’t be far away either.
1. Criterion – Three wins from four starts with inside barrier can’t be overlooked. Only has one strong run so may need to be saved back in field which may make it difficult. Note that a barrier trial performance in Feb he was poor on slow ground.
2. Fast ‘N’ Rocking – another runner with one strong finishing burst concerned with the barrier 15 however should be able to get out wide in the straight and pace on upfront will suit.
3. Kuroshio – this one will ensure a hot tempo with the stablemates best interests in mind. Won’t have the class too go with the classy ones up front.
4. Sidestep – Impressive winner last Saturday, blinkers go on for the first time and looks a progressive type. Breeding says ground no issues.
5. I’m All The Talk – Looks to have peaked last start with an impressive win in the Skyline stakes last start. Fourth on a rain affected track prior, will need some luck going forward but can fight on.
6. Whittington – Three horses on his immediate inside should be slow out which may allow this Waterhouse runner into a perfect spot. Soft ground could be a problem.
7. Dothraki – Should get good run in transit however looks outclassed here.
8. Charlie Boy – Not many options from the wide draw so will need to go back. Doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to match it with this class on exposed times.
9. Va Pensiero – Had his chance to run down Whittington who is on the up then didn’t want to be there in the Todman. On best stats is a place chance with a good run. Slow should suit
10. Windjammer – blinkers first time however hasn’t shown enough to be considered here.
11. Overreach – short price favourite after impressive win last start. With inside gate will be made to work hard early and slow track could be brought back to the field with pressure.
12. Ruud Awakening – very impressive in New Zealand however that form hasn’t been exposed in Australia and two year olds can’t peak three times in a year. Has been set a task from the outside gate. Another runner who will be left vulnerable late.
13. Sweet Idea – Another Waterhouse runner however draws the perfect barrier in four this time. Has exposed form on the soft with a last start win on the heavy nine. Looks the one to beat.
14. Villa Verde – was no match for Overreach last start however that was first up from 137 day layoff. Potential rating of this horse is good enough to win a slipper if Rodd can take the trail across from other wide runner’s suspect she will be in the finish.
15. Guelph - Has the best finishing sectionals of any runner on exposed form and will be suited by the tempo of the race. Has quality Sydney form from spring. If she is right and ready to peak again after the Diamond one worth following.
16. Romantic Moon – The last two heavy track winners of the golden slipper have been sired by more than ready as well (Sebring & Phelan ready). Downpour appears this horses only chance though as ratings suggest not good enough level for this.
17. Havana – emergency for this race who isn’t the worst if gets a run after improving with the blinkers last run. Probably needs another run to bring him on for a contest at this level though
18. Il Cavallo – 2nd emergency and unlikely runner who ran quick time in winning on debut. The step up to 1200M 2nd up into a Slipper would be enough for me to question credentials.
This looks a great race to take on a short priced favourite. Overreach has the best ratings coming into this race however the pattern of this contest just will not suit a one dimension Waterhouse runner. Tom Berry’s only option will be to go out quick and hope there is enough in the tank to hold off the swoopers, With Ruud Awakening, Kuroshio and I’m All The Talk all expected to come across from out wide in the slow conditions I suspect he won’t have a sprint in the second part of the race.
I think this is a year for the fillies to shine –The top Selection is another Waterhouse runner in 13. Sweet Idea - Jim Cassidy who has been in good form will have this one cuddled up behind the speed with exposed form on the wet track however good times and performances against yardstick two year old performances including Assail in November & nosed out in the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast this horse has the class to win this race. Around the $11.00 mark this is a great bet.
For 2nd I like 14. Villa Verde – again another horse who’s top rating coming into this race is good enough to win high rating golden slippers. Although coming off a 137 day break last start she was able to run 2nd behind Overreach with plenty of upside this is horse to follow. Michael Rodd is a group 1 winning jockey who should be able to follow other wide barrier horses across and so long as he gets a mid race break this is a horse worth following
The Peter Snowden trained Guelph is the third selection, this horse has the best sectional finish of any runner in this field. The blue diamond run was a total forgive and he started favourite that day. Should start around $5.00 a place and well worth a ticket.
13. Sweet Idea
14. Villa Verde
TIP - Lay the favourite & back runners to come from mid-back in the field
Race 7 horse 4- Angel of Mercy
Race 8- horse 13- Sessions
Angel of Mercy has been running against stronger opposition than this. Can see winning here.
Sessions 2 wins from 3 starts, light weight. Should win.
Skyerush heads the weights in the Angst Stakes and I expect her to finish on top in the race also. Seond to Pear Tart in the Tatts Tiara before spelling and then producing a second to More Joyous first up this horse is in career best form. Should find this one easier and expect her to get the cash.
Bet suggestion- Skyerush win, box quinella 1,10,11.
LAY OF THE DAY
Malavio hasn't exactly set the world on fire but finds itself short priced favourite in the Twin WIllows. With plenty of opposition you only need to find one horse to beat it. The main hopes include: Free Wheeling, Tromso, Alma's Fury an Coup Ay Tee.
Race 5 Horse 1 Epaulette
Golden Rose winner set for Guineas will start short (currently $2.50) however
I don't believe this horse faces much competition here. Will be able to dictate
race with little worries. Simply wins for mine.
LAYS OF THE DAY
Race 6 Horse 3 We're Gonna Rock and Race 6 Horse 9 Moment of Change.
We're Gonna Rock has had 5 starts at the distance for not even a place. Good
horse but can't run past 1200m. Moment of Change is too short ($3.80) in this.
Only needs to find one to beat it and there are plenty of chances.
Race 6 Horse 7 Centennial Park
Never disgraced this horse and carries the lowly 52.5kg. Simply have a hunch
it will be running on as a good place chance at odds. Eachway 26-1.