HISTORY OF THE MAGIC MILLIONS DAY
2006 A Great Year For Some
The second Saturday of the Magic Millions carnival is a race meet that is very dear to my heart. Magic Millions day 2006 was personally the most successful day at the track I have ever had. Attending the Gold Coast race meet on this day I started the day sipping the waters and nursing one mighty hangover from the festivities the night before. No pain no gain they say.
Well I certainly suffered early however I wasn’t complaining later on. Break The Barrier was the horse that kicked started my day at the juicy odds of 50-1. Obtaining that quinella and a first 4 in one of the other races I pocketed a healthy $5000 for the day. Later cruising in style in a limousine after a night out on the froathies. Chris, another one of Thisweekspunts analysists also had a successful time on the punt this very day also backing Break The Barrier. Anyway enough about us. Lets find you a winner for this years race meet.
MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Race Favourite Unencumbered
How does this years Magic Millions 2yo Classic favourite Unencumbered line up you ask? Lets have a look at the history of the last 5 years of this race in a snapshot.
Battle of the sexes
Being a male doesn’t fair well for Unencumbered statistics wise if the last five years is anything to go by. The females have the upper hand in the battle of the sexes having won the last four Magic Millions 2yo Classics. Phelan Ready was the last male horse to win the race in 2009.
Good news for favourite punters. In the last four years the longest priced winner has been 4-1. Phelan Ready was the last blowout which won the race at the juicy odds of 50-1 in 2009.
In the last five years success has been derived from the inside draw. Unencumbered will run from barrier 3. The same barrier Military Rose won from in 2010. Real Surreal (2013) and Driefontein (2012) won from barrier 2. Both Karuta Queen barrier 7 in 2011 and Phelan Ready barrier 9 in 2009 were also drawn relatively handy running from a single figure barrier.
Last Start Winners
Unencumbered was a last start winner. The last four winners of the race the Magic Millions 2yo Classic to have been last start winners. Phelan Ready once again breaks the sequence having run 4th in its start prior to the Magic Millions 2yo Classic.
B J McLachlan
Unencumbered won the B J McLachlan last start. Driefontein (2012) and Military Rose (2010) both won the B J McLachlan prior to winning the Magic Millions 2yo Classic.
Unencumbered won this race two starts ago. Karuta Queen (2011) also won this race prior to winning the Magic Millions 2yo Classic.
Predictions For This Years Race
The weather will play a big part in this years race. Rain is forecast for Queensland for the latter part of the week. My selections however are based on a good to dead track. The B J McLachlan will be the form race of this years Magic Millions 2yo Classic for mine. In my opinion there are four winning hopes. All of which come from running in the mentioned B J McLachlan in their start prior.
1st- Stroak - Having won its first two race starts comfortably and runner up to Unencumbered in the B J McLachlan I believe Michael Cahill will ride back to back winners in the Magic Millions 2yo Classic. Having been caught wide entering the straight in the B J McLachlan I believe the horse can make up for lost ground this race start. Expect a more prominent position early in the race particularly from the wide barrier (14) however I believe Cahill will sit just off the pace and let Echo Gal and Oakleigh Girl take up the front running.
2nd- Oakleigh Girl - Expect this horse to go to the front again perhaps not at the frantic pace that was served up in the B J McLachlan. Despite the struggle in speed battle in the B J McLachlan the horse showed magnificent fighting qualities to hold on for fourth.
3rd- Unencumbered - Make no mistake this favourite is a quality horse. I believe will settle back in the running and will be running home late. Not sure the inside draw is ideal for a horse that appreciated galloping room in the B J McLachlan. Was given an absolute peach of a ride in the B J McLachlan from Nathan Berry. Can it be done in the bigger field in a pressure race from an inside gate? That is the question for me.
4th- Echo Gal - Dropped right out of it in the B J McLachlan after entering a ferocious speed battle with Oakleigh Girl. Waterhouse has a cheeky tendency to make horses improve out of sight for the big game days. Expect bold showing out in front alongside Oakleigh Girl.
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Caulfield Cup Selections
My quest for peace
Caulfield, Best Bets and Quaddies
Race 6 - moonga stakes
Trent - big play Conservatorium
Adam - Conservatorium & Pinwheel
Chris - Conservatorium & Pinwheel
Race 7 - Caulfield sprint
Trent - small play ready to rip
Adam - ready to rip
Chris - each way Pago rock
Race 8 -David jones cup
Trent - Gris Caro (scratched)
Adam - Honorious ahead of bass strait
Chris - Gris Caro (stratched)
Race 9 - Tristarc stakes
Trent - Qld form worth following, fire up fifi bennetta & peron
Adam - Red Tracer/Xanudu E/W & Pickabee roughie (if it gets a Run)
Chris - Bennetta
Trent - Sydney race 8 - 3. She's clean
Adam - Sydney race 5 - 4. Ichihara with boxed quinella numbers 2,3,4
Leg 1 - 4,7,9,10
Leg 2 - 1,3,4,6
Leg 3 - 1,2,4,6
Leg 4 - 2,12,15,16
Spend $52 for 20%
Other Bets from outside the podcast
Doomben Race 5 - 3. Tax Evader, improved a lot in the autumn/winter with a 4th in the Eye liner behind today's biggest market mover at Caulfield(Conservatorium) and a long neck 2nd behind Peron whilst carrying 3.5kg more than Peron.
1st up form is solid and is currently paying $4.60 fixed
Randwick Race 8 - 4. Black Magic @ $15 E/W
Caulfield race 2 - 5.Champollion @ $15
Caulfield race 4 - 4. San Diego @ $4.80
Randwick race 6 - 4.Vaquera @ $3.80
Randwick race 7 - 9.Midsummer Sun @ $19
The Thousand guineas is exclusively for the three year old fillies division and like its male counterpart race a few days earlier has an impressive honour role. Today we have a very short priced favourite going around for the Darley stable let’s preview the runners and find out the best way to bet.
- 1.Guelph – off the back of the stables success last Saturday this filly will be aiming to add another group one juvenile trophy to the cabinet. She has won six from ten starts including three group 1 races to date. Only ever had two starts the Melbourne way of going with one victory and one poor ride in the Blue Diamond when three wide and too far back. Unbeaten in four start further than 1400M she may be too brilliant for them today.
- 2.Gregers – won the thousand guineas prelude back on September 21 off the back of a very slow tempo. Previous to that it was an impressive close up 5th at Flemington. Ran fourth in the blue diamond in her second race start which showed her class and looks to be improving with each run. The sire Commands is a proven miler sire and the 1600M looks a perfect target today.
- 3.Bound for Earth – resumed with a first up win over Guelph and then two subsequent placings. Actually not having the best of luck last start when left flat footed. Comes through the sires produce form from the Brisbane carnival which looks excellent now and still appears to have upside as well.
- 4.Se Sauver – Ran an eye catching race in the guineas prelude before putting it all together at Flemington last start with an upset victory. The extra distance doesn’t suit. Probably needs everything to go her way to figure in the placings today.
- 5.May’s Dream – Only a small filly who I think will improve next preparation. Has been well placed by Weir to date in dodging the top liners. The 1600m should suit and a expect a solid showing.
- 6.Godiva Rock – still a maiden at the moment and tending to find recent levels of racing to hard. Stable should lower sights and get a win on board, won’t be coming here.
- 7.Miracle to Me – fairly exposed runner with eight previous starts to date highlighting strong will to win however a limit on the talent. Two performances at listed and group 2 level have her 5 lengths behind these.
- 8.Wordplay – coming through the Newcastle formline two starts back this one was a solid second to Savvy Nature. Backed it up with a luckless 5th to Se Sauver. May be one to keep an eye on for when the distances get further as is a close relation to last years derby winner.
- 9.Gypsy Diamond – Inside gate helps with position in the run however doesn’t appear a threat today.
Two key points stick out in the calculations for the Thousand guineas today. Firstly is the prizemoney won by each runner to date, Guelph has won $1.3 million to date with her nearest rival under $400k with most under $200K. Prizemoney is a great indicator of class as feature races are obviously worth the greatest amounts. Guelph has a stack of expeience and performance advantages over the field.
The Other key point is the lack of pace in the race today. I believe Gregors under a smart ride from Schofield is the main danger to the favourite because of this and could pinch the race 400 from home.
Back 2.Gregors for a place at around $2.10 and if you can find favourite out markets take her as I believe she has the rest of the field covered easy.
Take the quinella 1-2
5. Mays Dream
@TrentWaldon BEST BETS
The remainder of the card as some great full fields here are Trent's selections for the day Race 3 -
5. Run Diego Race 4 -
14. Bono Vox Race 5 -
18. Wrotham Heath Race 7 -
11. Miss ZenellaRace 8 -
***8. Academus - has trialled superb leading up to this race
Podcast Betting suggestions recap
Race 6 - Caulfield Stks - Green Moon now scratched - betting suggestions applied when GM was in.
Trent: Super Cool to win(Tri's/F4) Atlantic Jewel standout 3rd
Chris: Green Moon e/w
Adam: Small e/w Massiyn
Race 8 - Herbert Power Stks
Trent: Verdant e/w
Chris: Work around Sea Moon/Kesampour/Verdant/Tanby
Adam: Lay Oasis Bloom win/place - Sea Moon/Kesampour for QN, Verdant/Tanby for trifecta values
Podcast: Against Simenon heavily
Race 9 - Toorak Hcp
Trent: - Ferlax and Bass Straight top 2 chances - Budriguez Best Roughies
Chris: Win - Speediness
Adam: Win - Bass Strait
Race 10 - Caulfield Guineas
Trent: Eclair Big Bang/Prince Harada to win, and try to work in value for multiples.
Chris: Win - Long John
Adam: Win - Eclair Big Bang
Best Bets @ Caulfield
Trent: Race 3 - Boxed QN and TRI - Va Pensiero, Safeguard & Miracles Of Life
Chris: Race 9 - Speediness
Adam: Race 5 - Assertive Eagle Win - Box QN with Aerobatics and Hazard
Leg 1: 4,6,7,10
Leg 2: 1,3,4
Leg 3: 1,5,6,17
Leg 4: 4,6,7
$30 will get you around 20%
Race 6 - Spring Champion
Trent: Win -Equator, Criterion and Villanova for the multiples
Chris: Win - Complacent, Equator for Multiples
Adam: Equator, Rock Hero, Complacent Box QN Add in Criterion for Trifecta value
Leg 1: 4,5,6
Leg 2: 4,5,9
Leg 3: 2,4,6,7,9
Leg 4: 1,10,11,13
$20 will get you 10%
Feature racing from Caulfield and Randwick this weekend gives us two cracking race features in the Underwood stakes and George main stakes which
will certainly shape the remainder of the spring carnival with there outcomes. Below are the guys best bets for the day along with our feature quaddies. If you haven’t given our podcast a try have a look hereTrent @Trentwaldon
Melbourne race 5 horse 2 CATKINS
Melbourne race 8 horse 7 QUINTESSENTIAL Adam @dewges
E/W Melbourne race 6 horse 8 FUTURE SOLUTIONEagle Farm Race Race 6 Horse 2 CRAIGLEA FALCONChris @CJAAAAY07
Sydney race 7 horse 5 GLENCADAM GOLD
Melbourne race 7 horse 9 POLITENESSQUADDIESMelbourne
Spend $24 for 20% Sydney
SPEND $24 for 10%
Group 1 racing returns to Flemington for the spring carnvial with the running of the Makybe Diva stakes. This race doesn't look to be a targeted race for many of the runners in this field and perhaps in the future something could be done to attract runners from the Memsie which was a great race last weekend to back up here.
The current Melbourne cup favourite looks to have a strangle hold on this race in Pussiance De Lune. He will meet a lot of imports lining up for their first starts for Australian trainers, the best of that lot is definately SEA MOON who has performed in strong overseas races including victory over Dunaden and Red Cadeuax in 2012. Waldpark is an ex-German runner who appears to have a turn of foot however trainer Anthony Freedman has advised he will get back and look for a strong finish.
Pussiance De Lune will drift in betting markets today however stay with the big grey. 1600M will suit and he is undefeated 2nd up from spells so expect improvement from a solid first up effort. Anything around $2.50 and above is great value.
@Teebangers Late Mail for the Flemington and Randwick Saturday meetings
Flemington Best 3
Race 4 #4 Niblick
Race 5 #2 Safeguard
Race 8 #8 Catkins
Randwick Best 3
Race 5 #3 Teronado
Race 6 #8 Fawkner
Race 8 #1 Sharnee Rose
Flemington Quadrella - 1/2/11/14/16/17 x 8 x 3/5/8/15 x 4/7/8/14/16/17
SPEND $28 for 20%
Randwick Quadrella - 2/3/9 x 8 x 1/2/3/11 x 1/2/3/4/14
SPEND $20 for 33%
Kick start your day with the Caulfield Extra Double (Races 3 and 4). The second leg the McNeil Stakes is a supposed match race between the undefeated Miracles of Life and Prince Harada. Having done the form I think the race is certainly a little deeper than that. Miracles of Life gives weight to the males and I think that is a very dangerous proposition.
There are three main chances for mine in this race Pyrollic, Fast n Rocking and Prince Harada. Pyrrolic defeated Boer by 3 lengths which was also defeated by the well fancied Prince Harada 1 length in separate races over the same distance ...of 1200m. The McNeil stakes also being run over the 1200m journey. I think you will find Pyrollic positioned more forward than the fancied runners (Miracles of Life, Prince Harada and Fast n Rocking). Pyrollic may take some catching and the Caulfield course will make it difficult for backmarkers to catch the front runners.
Caulfield extra double 7 x 2,3 (Cost $2 per unit)
EDIT: Pyrollic is now a scratching!
You have the 2012 Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon and runner up Fiorente lining up in this race but all the talk in the Memsie is the match race between Its A Dundeel ($4.80) and the undefeated Atlantic Jewel ($2.10). Atlantic Jewel hasn't been seen at the races in over 300 days due to injury but to jog your memory has won all seven of its race starts. Atlantic Jewel trainer Mark Kavanagh has come out and said that the target for this horse is the Cox Plate (2040m). With this in mind the question lingers will this horse be in condition to win on Saturday. I pose this question to you, What horse if any has targeted the Memsie? I think you will find that most the main players in this race have been set for Spring Glory later on during the season. With this in mind, the fact that someone has gotta win and Kavanagh won't want to tarnish the winning record of Atlantic Jewel I think you will find it is too strong for its rivals.
Take Atlantic Jewel as the rover and hope it gets beaten by a roughie to add value into your first 4.
First 4: 14 as rover with 9,10,11,12,13 ($24 gets you 10% of dividend)
Best Each-way Bets
MR 4 H 7- Pyrrolic (20-1) - NOW Scratched(one to follow)
SR 6 H 2- Criterion (20-1)
MR 3 #7 - Rose Pattern - 12-1
MR 7 #11 - Excluded - 14-1
Run to The Rose
The preview to the Golden Rose is a very open competitive race. According to the current sportsbet.com.au market there are 5 horses under double figure odds. Sidestep was incredibly unlucky last start and deserves favouritism on that basis. The punters have come for the 13 Ike's Legacy so this horse must be respected on that basis.
Eurozone is undefeated from its 3 starts and was the first city dual trained winner for the James and Bart Cummings stable. Equator is one of the Waterhouse reps and has won two of its three races start. Zoustar from the Waller camp has the pumper on board (Jim Cassidy) and comes off a successful Brisbane winter carnival campaign. Criterion at rough odds is the winner for me though. Has had success at the 1200m and I believe Payne will have a good day at Rosehill on Sat. A realistic chance of taking out three legs on the quaddie. (Saddles up Lilliburlero- Race 5 and Honorius- Race 8).
Caulfield- $36 (gets you 13% of dividend)
Leg 1: 4,10,12
Leg 2: 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11
Leg 3: 6,10,11
Leg 4: 9,10,14
Rosehill- $36 (gets you 13% of dividend)
Leg 1: 8,9,11
Leg 2: 1,2,3,5,9,13
Leg 3: 1,2,3,4,15
Leg 4: 4,9,13
In what is likely to be Black Caviar’s last appearance on Victorian soil we may as well take a quaddie (Or a treble) in her honour for one last time!
Couple of open legs however with some distinct class advantages in the mares we have narrowed this one down!
Race 5 - 2,3,6
Race 6 - 2,3,4,13
Race 7 - 7,8,9,12,13
Race 8 - The Champ - 6
Spend $30 for 50%
The Australian Cup
1st. Glass Harmonium - Was a strong 2nd to All Too Hard in the Futurity Stakes and comes from the superior spring form line with a 2nd between Alcopop and Ocean Park in the Mckinnon Stakes. If the horse gets out of the gates without an issue it will be a big player in this race.
Price - $11.00
2nd. Green Moon - The class runner of the field, who comes into the race extremely well weighted. Was solid first up when 4th in the Futurity Stakes but comes into the race 3nd up on the back of a Melbourne Cup preparation. Melbourne cup horses have a great record in this race.
Price - $4.20
3rd. Fiveandahalfstar - The Derby winner has to be respected here with the low weight on it's back, racing on pace will be an advantage here and definitely one to consider for your multiples
Price - $7.50
4th. Mawingo - Similar form line to Mr Moet but provides a more attractive price and the fact Craig Williams stays on board. The horse will likely enjoy the bigger track at Flemington and will be hitting the line strong.
Price - $8.50
1st. Moment of Change - was outstanding behind Black Caviar in what was a track record performance. Stable has a high opinion of the horse and will be hard to beat.
2nd. Fontelina - Track and Distance specialist who will thrive running fresh, Boss on board has to be a big positive, was impressive in the spring when taking out the Yellow Glen stakes.
3rd. Barakey - The WA sprinter may be a future star of Australian racing and was unfortunately scratched at the barriers last start. Has yet to prove himself against the top line sprinters in the country but should put up a decent showing. Only concern is a horse hasn't won this race first up in over 50 years. Definately a place bet though.
4th. Spirit of Boom - Goes into the race off a solid first up performance, enjoys the straight track racing and looks to be able to get a good run tracking MOC into the race. Always runs to a consistent mark which should be competitive here for place value
Fontelina Each Way @ $16/$4
BEST BET OF THE DAY - Number 1 Puissance De Lune - This horse is a star on the rise, looking for another group race win to enhance his handicap rating for future spring carnival races. Budriguez and Callanish will set a solid tempo and from a handy inside barrier this horse only needs good luck and to get out at the right time and will win this by 2 lengths.
Take the $4.80 if available all the way into $3.50 as this horse is a star.
With the Mornington cup now providing the winner a free ballot excempt entry to the Caulfield cup the standard of field seems to be improving each year. Here are our tips for the big race
1st- Award Season
The Kris Lees stable is flying at the moment with over a 20% runners to winners strike rate this horse who has been set for this race will be winning. Mcevoy stays on board this european galloper who is coming off a 4 length win last start at Canterbury. Although he didn't beat much there is plenty of upside to this import who enjoys the firm ground. Well weighted to win this race take the $4.00 on offer.
Last start winner and defeated Hurdy Gurty Man who went on to win in Tasmania at its next start. Always shown good ability over the extended trips this horse may give them a start from awkward barrier but will fly home.